Republican Latinos Feeling Left Out in 2012

Pundits have been quick to use Iowa as a 2012 crystal ball. But, among the things that the results of Tuesday night’s caucuses cannot predict is how Latino voters perceive the Republican hopefuls.

The same will be true of the following primaries in New Hampshire and South Carolina, as none of the first three states have sizable Hispanic populations. Estimates find that eligible Hispanic voters make up just 2% of Iowa’s voter population, and less in New Hampshire and South Carolina. Unless the primary battle drags out through Florida on January 31st and Nevada on February 4th, we may have few opportunities for Hispanic Republicans to weigh in en masse on their nominee.

Unlike the first three primary states, the Hispanic vote actually matters in Florida, where Hispanics represent over 14% of the state’s voter population and accounted for 12% of 2008 GOP primary voters. In 2008, Romney did not fare well among Florida’s Hispanic voters. Of those who turned out for the primary, 54% broke for McCain, 24% for Giuliani, and only 14% for Romney.

Likewise, in Nevada, Hispanics represent over 9% of the state’s voter population. Although the largely Cuban turnout that one might see in a Florida Republican primary isn’t a tell-all – nor is the turnout of Nevada’s quirky caucuses – they would bring political clairvoyants a peak into the Republican nominee’s general election viability. READ MORE